The Electric Sector Simulation Task of the CHINA ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PROGRAM (CETP) employs the scenario-based multi-attribute tradeoff analysis approach, developed by AGREA, to explore the comparative performance of multi-option strategies under uncertainty. Through the use of a simulation modeling approach that captures the changes in year-to-year utilization of power plants as electricity demand and the power system evolves, cost-effective multi-pollutant emissions reduction strategies associated with electric sector modernization can be identified.
This chapter provides an overview to the approach and how it was applied to Shandong Province within the CETP. Later in the chapter we give a quick overview of Shandong Province itself. The remainder of this report explains the derivation of the modeling assumptions used in the analysis of scenarios outlined in this chapter. Computational results and their implications from the Electric Sector Simulation task are contained in Chapter Six of INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS IN CHINA: THE CHINA ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PROGRAM: A FRAMEWORK FOR DECISION MAKING IN THE ELECTRIC SECTOR OF SHANDONG PROVINCE, published by Kluwer Academic Press and edited by B. Eliasson and Y. Lee